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More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, Business Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.
Persons: , Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York
Average 30-year mortgage rates dropped this week and have been hovering in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Down (-0.18%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.11%, 18 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall (-0.28%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.99%, 28 basis points lower than last week.
Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank, Federal Reserve, Investors, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday guided investors through next week's market action, telling them to pay attention to a number of earnings reports, including Home Depot , Alibaba and Walmart . He also suggested remarks from Federal Reserve officials will continue to shape the market, saying investors should tune in on Monday to commentary from Loretta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Alibaba also reports that day, and Cramer said if the quarter is good, Wall Street may be more inclined to buy Chinese stocks. Thursday brings earnings from Walmart , Deere and Applied Materials . He added that Applied Materials could have a solid quarter as its peer Taiwan Semiconductor just released a positive sales report.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Loretta Mester, Cramer, Alibaba Organizations: Home, Walmart, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cisco, Deere, Applied, Taiwan Semiconductor, Dow Locations: Alibaba, Nextracker
There's a massive wealth transfer underway. "It has started and it's only going to accelerate," said Liz Koehler, head of advisor engagement for BlackRock's wealth advisory business. And yet, some millennials and Generation Z may not be inheriting as much as they think. Recent reports show a growing disconnect between how much the next generation expects to receive in the "great wealth transfer" and how much their aging parents plan on leaving them. However, 55% of baby boomers who plan to leave behind an inheritance said they will pass on less than $250,000, Alliant found.
Persons: Liz Koehler, Gen Zers, Alliant, Isabel Barrow Organizations: Finance, Alliant Credit Union, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Edelman, Edelman Financial Locations: millennials
Read previewYoung Americans are feeling increasingly isolated from their offices and classrooms, and these "disconnected youth" — or "opportunity youth" — may be ill-positioned for the future. Loneliness and a tough job market are leaving many Gen Zers feeling stuck, isolated, and unsupported. In fact, they're members of the disconnected youth — defined as Gen Zers who are not in school and not working. Disconnected youth are at risk of long-term stagnationMost Gen Zers — who are between the ages of 12 and 27 — are in this decisive decade. How to help disconnected youthAlthough many disconnected youth struggle with school and work, researchers cautioned against a "one size fits all" solution.
Persons: , Gen Zers, Richard Reeves, Reeves, Zers, aren't, Zers —, Jonathan Zaff, Ian Rowe, Lara Aknin, Zaff, Zer, isn't Organizations: Service, Brookings, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, National Center for Education Statistics, Boston University, American Enterprise Institute, Partnership Locations: North America, Brookings
AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
A growing group of America's young people are not in school, not working, or not looking for work. They're called "disconnected youth" or "opportunity youth," and their ranks have been growing for nearly three decades. Experts say it's not just work and school; this group is often also disconnected from a sense of purpose. Palmer added that those with limited access to transportation, people with disabilities, and young parents were also more susceptible. Disconnected young people don't have that luxury."
Persons: , Destiny, She's, she's, They're, Kristen Lewis, Lewis, hadn't, there's, Sen, Tim Kaine, who's, Joseph, he's, hasn't, he'd, Ashley Palmer, Palmer, Sarah Nunley, Nunley, Veronica, There's, Lucchesi, they're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Social Science Research Council, Survey, University of Minnesota's, National Center for Education Statistics, Walmart, Texas Christian University, Ivy League Locations: Florida, Alabama, Indiana, Silicon Valley, YOLO, Texas
That rate of rapid wealth growth has never happened before in the data series' history, per the analysis, and it comes after wealth growth remained relatively stagnant for young Americans pre-pandemic. This data, as the authors of the CAP analysis note, suggests that wealth gains weren't just reserved for the top-earning millennials since both median and average wealth grew. "This suggests that the strong wealth growth for younger Americans is broad-based and not the result of strong growth of a handful of wealthy younger households," the authors write. As that report notes, financial assets were a major component of younger Americans' wealth growing. "We need to keep this robust labor market going and Congress needs to set its sights on younger Americans' greatest affordability challenge: housing," Duke said.
Persons: , Gen X, Brendan Duke, Christian Weller, X, millennials, Duke, BI's Noah Sheidlower Organizations: Service, Center for American Progress, Federal, Business, Boomers, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, millennials, Liberty Street, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: millennials, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
I want to protect further downside in the broader U.S. equity market despite the fact that S & P 500 has had an acute drop of more than 5% off its recent 2024 highs. I do believe that we are still in a bull market, but the headwinds are strong in the current market conditions. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Lastly, markets are contending with corporate earnings season. Per my friends at Factset, the S & P 500's valuation on a forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.6. DISCLOSURES: (Long this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Big Tech, Trust Locations: Israel, Iran, Factset
More people are looking for a new job, and they have high salary expectations. The lowest average pay people would be willing to accept a new job reached $81,822 as of March, a new series high since 2014. That's according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest consumer expectations survey, which is fielded every four months. But to live comfortably by traditional budgeting advice, the average person needs to earn upwards of $89,000 — closer to the latest data on salary expectations — according to a recent analysis from SmartAsset. And despite a hiring slowdown, ZipRecruiter data shows more companies are actively recruiting to hire for open roles, and they're also extending more counteroffers to keep employees from quitting.
Persons: Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Labor Department
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
In particular, the researchers looked at a group dubbed "disconnected youth," who aren't working and are also not in school. As of 2022, disconnected youth comprised 13% of this age group; that share has been rising overall since 1998, according to calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. AdvertisementYounger Americans are facing stagnant incomesThe Dallas Fed found that, even after a post-pandemic dip, the rate of disconnected youth has increased since the end of the 1990s. AdvertisementAnd the number of young adults with no income has been on the rise; in 1990, around one in five young adults said they had no wage or salary income. Are you or were you a "disconnected youth," or supporting one?
Persons: , Louis, Gen, Zers, Louis Fed's, Louis Fed, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers Organizations: Service, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute for Economic Equity, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Louis Fed, National Health, Blacks, Louis, Louis Fed's Institute for Economic Equity
Average 30-year mortgage rates ticked up above 6.50% for the first time in more than a week, according to Zillow data. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.11% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester, Mester, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
Some American universities estimate their total cost of attendance will exceed $90,000 next year. Tuition and fees at universities have continued to climb, even when adjusted for inflation. The result may be a generation of students wondering if college is worth it. AdvertisementThe price of getting a degree has continued to climb at American universities, with the cost of some schools reaching a new threshold. Out-of-state and in-state tuition and fees at public universities have risen by about 38% and 56%, adjusted for inflation, over the same period.
Persons: , Gen, Ana Hernández Kent, Louis Organizations: Service, New York University, Tufts, University of Pennsylvania, Yale, NYU, Board, U.S . News, for Higher, of Education, Universities, Institute for Higher Education, Institute for Economic Equity, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe price of getting a degree has continued to climb at American universities, with the cost of some schools reaching a new threshold. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Out-of-state and in-state tuition and fees at public universities have risen about 38% and 56%, respectively, inflation-adjusted over the same period. In a Business Insider and YouGov survey conducted last year, 46% of Gen Z respondents said they don't think college is worth the cost.
Persons: , Gen, Ana Hernández Kent, Louis Organizations: Service, New York University, Tufts, University of Pennsylvania, Yale, Business, NYU, Board, U.S News, of Higher, of Education, Universities, Institute of Higher, Institute for Economic Equity, Federal Reserve Bank of St
NEW YORK (AP) — It may not be too “appeeling,” but the price tags of some bananas are rising by a few cents. Trader Joe's recently upped the price for a single banana to 23 cents, a 4-cent — or 21% — increase from the grocer's previous going rate for the fruit that had remained unchanged for over 20 years. In contrast to other foods more heavily impacted by inflation, bananas have stayed relatively affordable over time — with average global prices never exceeding more than about 80 cents per pound (0.45 kilograms). Still, banana prices have seen some jumps in recent years. In the U.S., the cost of a pound of bananas averaged at about 63 cents last month.
Persons: Joe's, , we’ve, Louis, ” Neil Saunders, Saunders Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, United Nations, Food, Agriculture Organization Locations: Monrovia , California, U.S,
The shipping container is a logistics marvel that can affordably move thousands of items from hundreds of different companies all around the globe. Supply chain disruptionsDisruptions to global trade can have major impacts on shortages and inflation, causing serious ramifications for American households and businesses. Indeed, inflation cooled alongside the bounce back of the supply chain, according to a White House analysis of the U.S. economy. [It's] an inefficiency born not of container shipping but just of the nature of the global economy." Watch the video above to learn more about how shipping containers enable global trade, why China dominates the shipping industry and what happens after a container shortage.
Persons: Simon Heaney, John Fossey, Good Hope, John McCown, nonresident, McCown, Goetz Alebrand, " Heaney, Heaney Organizations: Drewry, CNBC, Supply, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Maritime Strategy, Federal Maritime Commission, Americas, DHL Global Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, U.S, Iran, Good, Africa, China, Ukraine, Asia
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Some side hustles come with a significant time investment and unpredictable pay. Related storiesNot all side hustles come with the time investment that ride-hailing does. But everyone with a side gig is faced with the same question: Are the extra working hours worth the financial reward? Only eight months after he started, he resigned from his two extra roles and decided to stop job-juggling for the time being. But all prospective job-switchers are faced with the same question: Are the uncertainties that come with a new job worth the financial reward?
Persons: , switchers, Lyft, There's, overemployment Organizations: Service, Business, Harris Poll, Uber, Twin Cities, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Harris, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta, Minnesota, Texas
AdvertisementThese changes, spread out over millions of transactions a year, have the chance to reshape the housing market. Real-estate agent commissions have hovered between 5% and 6% of the sale price for decades. If sellers are in a desirable market, they might start offering less commission to buyers' agents, or none at all. This would force buyers' agents to get more creative. It has made it clear that it doesn't want sellers offering compensation to buyers' agents.
Persons: there's, Rich Pedroncelli, doesn't, they're, Bret Weinstein, they'll, I'm Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Department of Justice, NAR, DOJ, AP, MLS, Department, Justice Locations: Denver
A Texas millennial says his dating life improved when he started making more money as a pharmacist. AdvertisementWhen Benjamin Gibson was in his early 20s, he didn't have much success in the dating scene. Gibson isn't the only American who thinks a strong career and financial profile could help their dating success. "I do feel better because it took me time to have confidence, even after I started working as a pharmacist." Has career success helped your social or dating life?
Persons: , Benjamin Gibson, Gibson, he'd, Pinghui Wu, he's, doesn't Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston Fed Locations: Texas, Virginia
A recent study published in the American Educational Research Journal found that engineering and computer science majors provide the highest returns in lifetime earnings, followed by business, health and math and science majors. Education and humanities and arts majors had the lowest returns of the 10 fields of study considered. "However, there are significant differences across college majors." Overall, the researchers found that the benefits of higher education have held up, even as enrollment has declined and the labor market outcomes for those without a college degree have improved, Zhang said. For workers with a bachelor's degree, education was the lowest-earning field of study, followed by psychology and social work and the arts.
Persons: Liang Zhang, Zhang Organizations: Georgetown University Center, Education, Workforce, Federal Reserve Bank of New, American Educational Research, NYU Steinhardt School of Culture , Education, Human Development, Finance, Ivy League, Georgetown Center, Center Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Rising gasoline and housing prices led inflation to increase 0.4% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. Meanwhile, a recent report on consumer spending from Mastercard found that retail sales excluding autos were up in February, with online retail sales up more than 9.1%. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release retail sales for February on Thursday with analysts looking for a strong 0.8% increase after January's drop. “A dip in retail sales to start the calendar year is common, however, this year January retail sales marked the biggest decline since March of last year,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at Vericast.
Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, , Chip Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, “ Services, RSM, Mastercard, Apparel, Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of, Blue Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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